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Product: Daily Forecast of Geomagnetic Activity
Issued: 2024 May 10 06:42UTC
Prepared by the Athens Space Weather Forecasting Center
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I. Solar activity
--Current Status
Solar Flux (10.7cm) measured on 09.05.2024 at 23:00 UTC was 233 sfu.
The background X-Ray flux is at the class C5.8 level.
Several M-class and 2 X-class solar flares were produced on May 09 and the biggest was the X2.3.
AR3664 erupted on May 09 at 09:13 UT peak time producing a X2.3 class solar flare and a radioblackout of category R3.
No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery on May 06-07.
A coronal hole (CH1221) at northern hemisphere was Earth facing on May 08-09.
---CME arrival forecast
A full halo CME was observed on May 08 at 05:36 UT. This CME could reach Earth on May 10 between 14:59 UT and 23:52 UT according to EAM predictions.
Another full hallo CME was observed on May 08 at 12:24 UT from AR3664 following a long-duration M8.6 class solar flare. This CME could reach Earth on May 11 between 02:35 UT and 08:11 UT according to EAM predictions.
A halo CME was observed on May 09 at 09:24 UT after the X2.3 class solar flare. This CME could reach Earth between on May 10 at 23:16 UT and on May 11 at 19:45 UT according to EAM predictions.

II. Solar Energetic Particle Events
Protons and electrons fluxes are quiet.

III. Interplanetary and Geomagnetic conditions
The solar wind speed measured by ACE satellite reached the max value 444 Km/s on May 00 at 08:30 UT during the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed from STEREO A was detected 400 Km/s during the last 24 hours.
The vertical component of IMF Bz reached the max value -5 nT on May 10 at 02:45 UT during the last 24 hours.
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels during the last 24 hours.
The Kp index now is at unsettled levels with Kp=3.

IV. 3-day Geomagnetic Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm (G1) levels on May 10, at unsettled to strong storm (G3) levels with a chance of severe storm (G4) levels on May 11 and at unsettled to moderate storm (G2) on May 12 due to effects of CMEs observed on May 08 and 09.

Date	Ap index forecast	Geomagnetic Activity level
10.05.2024	30	Unsettled to Minor storm (G1)
11.05.2024	65	Unsettled to Strong storm (G3)
12.05.2024	30	Unsettled to Moderate storm (G2)

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Athens Space Weather Forecasting Center
Physics Department, National & Kapodistrian University of Athens
Athens Neutron Monitor Station A.NE.MO.S
Tel.: +30 210 727 6901
email: spaceweather@phys.uoa.gr
URL: http://spaceweather.phys.uoa.gr
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