***********************************************************************
Product: Daily Forecast of Geomagnetic Activity
Issued: 2025 January 22 04:50UTC
Prepared by the Athens Space Weather Forecasting Center
***********************************************************************
I. Solar activity--Current StatusSolar Flux (10.7cm) measured on 21.01.2025 at 23:00 UTC was 225 sfu.
The background X-Ray flux is at the class C1.7 level.
AR3967 erupted on January 21 at 10:39 UT peak time producing a M3.4-Class solar flare and a radio blackout of category R1.
No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery on January 18-20.
A CME was observed on January 21 at 10:53 UT. The source is the M3.4 class solar flare. This CME could reach Earth on January 24 between at 08:20 UT and at 08:58 UT according to EAM predictions.
II. Solar Energetic Particle EventsProtons and electrons fluxes are quiet.
III. Interplanetary and Geomagnetic conditionsThe solar wind speed measured by ACE satellite reached the max value 612 Km/s on January 21 at 06:55 UT during the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed from STEREO A was detected 500 Km/s during the last 24 hours.
The vertical component of IMF Bz reached the max value -4 nT on January 21 at 17:25 UT during the last 24 hours.
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels during the last 24 hours.
The Kp index now is at unsettled levels with Kp=3.
IV. 3-day Geomagnetic Activity ForecastThe geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on January 22, at quiet levels on January 23 and at quiet to active levels on January 24 due to the effect of the CME.
Date | Ap index forecast | Geomagnetic Activity level |
---|
22.01.2025 | 08 | Quiet to Unsettled |
23.01.2025 | 05 | Quiet |
24.01.2025 | 15 | Quiet to Active |
***************************************************************************
Athens Space Weather Forecasting Center
Physics Department, National & Kapodistrian University of Athens
Athens Neutron Monitor Station A.NE.MO.S
Tel.: +30 210 727 6901
email: spaceweather@phys.uoa.gr
URL: http://spaceweather.phys.uoa.gr
***************************************************************************